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Rabobank: Global Fertilizer Market To Provide Affordable Supply Through 2024

While global fertilizer use dropped 7% in 2022, Rabobank analysts estimate an increase in usage by 3% for 2023. On the pricing side, Rabobank forecasts a positive outlook for fertilizer purchasing through 2024.

"These figures align with our Affordability Index, which shows much better conditions for purchasing fertilizers than a year ago," said Bruno Fonseca, Senior Analyst, Farm Inputs at Rabobank. “The index’s movements confirm our expectation of usage growth in 2023, with nitrogen growing 2%, phosphate 3.9%, and potash 5%.”

Samuel Taylor, senior analyst for farm inputs at Rabobank, says U.S. wholesale fertilizer prices are down 25% to 50% — with variances resulting from timing and product type. He says volume demand should improve for the U.S. market. However, the factor to watch is soybean acres in 2024 and MAP supply with a potential shortfall.


October 25, 2023



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