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What is going on with the cheese market?

From mid-April to mid-May, the price of CME block cheese rose by nearly 50 cents a pound, and the June Class III futures contract jumped from $16.50 per hundredweight (cwt.) to more than $21 per cwt. What has driven this price strength, and where do we go from here?

First let me say that rarely does anyone know exactly what is driving any market. You hear pundits talk about this or that driving the stock market, foreign exchange, or a commodity market, but they are just theories. Their explanations, and my explanation, for what is moving a market is based on what we know and what we think we know, mixed with our personal biases, and fed through a model (in our heads or in a computer) of how we think a particular market works. Still, here is my theory of what has happened in the cheese market.

Nate Donnay

May 16, 2024



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