A balanced dairy market in 2025
- amy55735
- Jun 10
- 2 min read
The U.S. dairy market is charging into 2025 with high stakes. Two of the world’s largest cheese plants have fired up in the first half of the year, unleashing a torrent of new processing capacity. Just months ago, it seemed inevitable that this flood of cheese would swamp the struggling domestic market. It’s clear that sluggish restaurant sales — Pizza Hut down 5%, Papa John’s off 3% — reflect a continued shaky domestic demand situation. That hasn’t changed. Coming into 2025, we all knew that the million-dollar question for dairy farmers was, “Could exports be strong enough to survive the storm brewing over tariffs, trade wars, and plant expansions?”
Exports carry dairy
Dairy exports have, in fact, defied the gloom. The global economy has proven sturdier than expected, helping demand for U.S. cheese, butter, milk powder, and whey products. Europe’s milk production has stumbled, hampered by Bluetongue disease and restrictive environmental regulations that have curbed farm growth. New Zealand, too, has been sidelined with lagging milk supply growth. As a result, global buyers are turning to the U.S., which is on pace to establish a new butter export record this year. In addition, 20 million more pounds of cheese have been exported in the first quarter. We are also hearing more whispers in the industry of global buyers referring to U.S. dairy suppliers as “strategic partners,” fueled by the optimism from billions of dollars being invested in cutting-edge plants and a quality milk supply. The tailwinds behind U.S. dairy have become impossible to ignore amidst the growth in sales of dairy products throughout the world.
Matt Gould
June 9, 2025
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