Larger Herd Continues to Drive Stronger Output
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The T.C. Jacoby Weekly Market Report Week Ending November 21, 2025
Milk continues to gush across the United States. In the most recent Milk Production report, USDA pegged October production at 19.47 billion pounds, representing a year over year gain of 3.7%. Growth remains similar to recent months, though USDA did revise the September increase down from 4% to 3.8%. A larger herd continues to drive stronger output, but the tide may be shifting. For the first time this year dairy producers reduced cow numbers by 6,000 head during October, bringing the national herd to 9.575 million head. Even so, cow numbers are up an astonishing 208,000 head compared to a year ago.
Volumes were up across all major dairy states. California production marched upward by 6.9% as production this year is compared to last year’s weak, H5N1- affected volumes. After posting an 8.9% increase in September, Idaho production was up another 7% in October. Michigan, New York, Texas, and Wisconsin all posted increases as well with volumes up 4.3%, 4%, 2.9%, and 1.8%, respectively.
November 24, 2025
