Cattle cycle expansions: Lessons from history
- jessi989
- Jun 8
- 1 min read
The U.S. cattle industry has been characterized by cycles of inventory and prices since the modern ranching industry developed in the late 1800s. There have been twelve cyclical inventory peaks in the last 129 years, with the first in 1890 and most recently in 2019 (Figure 1). Cycles have been persistent regardless of whether the inventory has been trending higher or lower.
From the current inventory low (maybe, depending on drought), the most important question in the industry is when herd rebuilding will begin. Both increased heifer retention and reduced cow culling are needed to stabilize the herd inventory at a low and begin expansion. Beef cow culling has decreased sharply since 2022, from a peak of 13.2 percent to 8.4 percent in 2025. Beef cow slaughter is down again year over year in 2026 and currently indicates a beef cow culling rate of 7.1 percent for the year, which would be a record low culling level.
Derrell PeelOklahoma State University Extension
June 8, 2026
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