USDA’s “Cattle on Feed,” issued on Friday, July 19, showed on- feed inventory at 101% of last year. But this does not tell the story, the real story. On-feed inventory in Texas and Nebraska is up 3%, but down 7% in Kansas and unchanged in Iowa. Market ready supplies in Nebraska are tight. The Nebraska show list this week is down 20,000 head from the previous week. The report also confirmed that the supply of heifers on feed is record high.
This data confirms that widespread heifer retention has not started yet. But with 40 percent of the nation’s pastures in good to excellent condition, my sources believe that retention will begin in earnest sometime this fall. When heifers are held back and not placed, naturally, placements are going to drop hard and fast. The math will change rather suddenly. In a few months, the concept of a plentiful supply of cattle in the feedlots will be long gone.
July 25, 2024
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