Is herd head expansion going to continue?

ZISK
Jan 26
1 min read

U.S. headline milk production growth was much stronger than expected in September, up 4% compared to the forecast of +3.2%. The amount of fat and protein in the milk was also up from last year, which put component adjusted production up an exceedingly strong 6.1%. The biggest surprise was a 21,000 cow upward revision to August, which means the number of herds expanded by 42,000 head between July and August followed by an additional 40,000 cows being added between August and September.

The only other time that we’ve seen an expansion like this was the mid-1980s. The government had paid farmers to stop producing milk for a period of time, and when those payments ran out, the herd (and production) rebounded very quickly. U.S. dairy farmers have now added 258,000 cows (+2.8%) to the herd in 15 months, which is the fastest pace since the mid-1980s. far outpacing any expansion we’ve seen in the past 40 years.

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