The USDA Milk Production report for April showed a 0.3% increase over a year prior, which marks the lowest year-over-year-increase since June 2022. Phil Plourd, head of market intelligence at Ever.Ag Insights, says that on-farm margins have deteriorated to a degree that, historically, corresponds with less milk production or at least slower growth.
“While we’ve seen this coming for a while, the really discouraging milk checks are just starting to circulate,” he states. “We’re fond of saying that ‘It always takes longer than you think!’ to turn milk production lower (or higher). Even though we repeatedly remind our clients and ourselves of this reality, the slow process still often seems surprising. For all that, our models expect milk production to turn mildly negative this summer.”
By KAREN BOHNERT
May 22, 2023
dairyherd.com
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