Number Six: The beef industry has witnessed five consecutive years (’19-thru-’23) of declining beef cow inventory. Sooner-or-later that trend has to reverse course – right? And during the past year, there’s been lots of discussion in the ag media about the overall decline in cow slaughter numbers. So, surely 2024 must have been the year for that to happen – also right? Not so fast; 2024 is shaping up to be year number six.
Slaughter Rate: While it’s true that cow slaughter sharply declined during the past year, the absolute number doesn’t really tell us much; it’s the relative number that matters. That is, the true indicator of producer intentions is the slaughter rate (total slaughter as proportion of beginning inventory). It’s not a perfect predictor (more on that below), but it’s a fairly reliable indicator of which direction the cowherd is headed.
Nevil Speer
December 26, 2024
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