U.S. milk output fell short of year-ago volumes for the 14th straight month in August. The deficit was narrow; production was just 0.1% lower than August 2023. Given sizable improvements in milk components, butterfat and protein output were surely higher than last year, and it’s possible that milk solids output also topped August 2023 volumes. But August 2023 set a very low bar, and, at least on a fluid basis, U.S. milk output failed to clear it.
Dairy producers sent 43,900 fewer cows to slaughter than they did in August 2023. That was enough to hold milk-cow head counts steady from July to August at 9.325 million cows. There were 40,000 fewer cows setting hoof in a U.S. milk parlor than there were a year ago.
But 12 months of astoundingly low cull rates and six months of the bird flu have clearly taken a toll. The dairy herd is slowly becoming older and less efficient. Milk yields topped year-ago levels in August, but that’s because August 2023 was a scorcher in much of the South and West. A two-year comparison strips out some of the weather impact and makes clear the effect that the heifer shortage has had on dairy productivity. National average milk yields fell below the same month two years before in June, July, and August. That stands in sharp contrast to the typical two-year growth of around 2%.
Sept. 23, 2024
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