The T.C. Jacoby Weekly Market Report Week Ending November 22, 2024
Never doubt the power of the profit motive in a free market. In the face of a devastating virus and a systemic heifer shortage, American dairy producers nevertheless found a way to add cows and boost milk production.
Never doubt the power of the profit motive in a free market. In the face of a devastating virus and a systemic heifer shortage, American dairy producers nevertheless found a way to add cows and boost milk production. In fact, they expanded the herd and grew milk output at a faster clip than previously thought. USDA revised its estimate of September milk production upward. The agency now shows September milk output up 0.4% from the year before, on par with growth in August. And, according to the latest figures, dairy producers added 18,000 cows from August to September, up sharply from an initial estimate that showed no month-to-month change. The growth continued in October, with milk production up a modest 0.2% year over year and an additional 19,000 cows setting hoof in the milk parlor. That put the dairy herd at 9.365 million head, outpacing year-ago numbers for the first time since May 2023.
How did they do it? Over the past 12 months, dairy producers sent 380,000 fewer cows to slaughter than they did, on average, during the preceding five years. That was enough to push the milk-cow herd up 10,000 head from where it stood a year ago, a 0.1% increase. But growth in milk production remains slow as avian influenza and the older dairy herd continue to weigh on milk yields. Milk production per cow fell short of 2022 levels in June, July, and October. The dairy herd has made huge gains in butterfat output and modest advancements in protein production. But on a fluid milk basis, today’s cows have not improved on the performance of their peers from two years ago.
Nov. 25, 2024
Commenti