Profits, Expectations, and the Invisible Hand of Herd Expansion
- ZISK
- Jun 25
- 2 min read
The T.C. Jacoby Weekly Market Report Week Ending June 20, 2025
The invisible hand is solving the heifer shortage. Years of decent profits and the promise of more prosperity on the horizon pushed producers to invest in new barns, forgo some beef calf income in favor of dairy calves, and cull as few cows as possible. Those efforts are adding up. USDA revised its estimate of the April milk cow herd. The agency now shows that dairy producers added 20,000 cows – rather than just 5,000 – that month, and they added another 5,000 in May. That puts the U.S. herd at 9.445 million milk cows, the highest head count since July 2021.
The invisible hand is solving the heifer shortage. Years of decent profits and the promise of more prosperity on the horizon pushed producers to invest in new barns, forgo some beef calf income in favor of dairy calves, and cull as few cows as possible. Those efforts are adding up. USDA revised its estimate of the April milk cow herd. The agency now shows that dairy producers added 20,000 cows – rather than just 5,000 – that month, and they added another 5,000 in May. That puts the U.S. herd at 9.445 million milk cows, the highest head count since July 2021. Dairy producers have added 114,000 cows over the past 12 months and 90,000 head since the turn of the year. The data suggest that cull rates – and not breeding decisions – are the primary source of these “new” cows. January through May dairy cow slaughter was 209,000 head smaller than the five-year average.
June 24, 2025
Comments