Coming into 2024, the beef cow herd is at a 63-year low – the smallest beef cow inventory since 1961. This has pushed cattle prices to record levels through 2023 and 2024. And yet, there are no indications that any beef herd rebuilding is underway. The question of rebuilding the beef cow inventory is fundamental for cattle markets in the next few years.
A review of historical herd expansions is instructive. Figure 1 shows the path of beef cow herd increase for the past two complete cyclical expansions. From 1990-1996, the beef cow herd increased by 2.864 million head. From 2014-2014, the beef cow herd increased less – by 2.734 million head – in one less year but faster. The beef cow herd increased by 1.2 million in just two years from 2014-2016.
By DERRELL PEEL - OKLAHOMA STATE UNIVERSITY
August 5, 2024
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