U.S. Dairy Herd is Likely to Continue to Grow
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The T.C. Jacoby Weekly Market Report Week Ending November 14, 2025
Market incentives have trumped biology and overcome the heifer shortage. Buoyed by several years of positive margins, dairy producers on both sides of the Atlantic have lowered cull rates, added cows, and amped up milk yields. In the U.S., dairy producers added 42,000 cows in August and another 40,000 head in September. Producers who had put off expansions when interest rates first climbed in 2022 eventually moved forward with their plans, and many are just now putting cattle into new heifer barns and milk parlors after completing the multi-year permitting, financing, and construction process. Meanwhile, in New York and throughout the heartland, dairy producers jumped at the opportunity to supply new dairy processing facilities. Based on the timing of new processing, the U.S. dairy herd is likely to continue to grow.
November 17, 2025
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