China dairy import forecast | USDA Slashes China Whole Milk Powder Import Outlook
- ZISK APP
- Jun 10
- 1 min read
Rising domestic production and a slumping birth rate drive down consumption, forcing the world’s top buyer to scale back global dairy purchases.
The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Foreign Agricultural Service has issued a major downward revision for China’s calendar year whole milk powder (WMP) imports, lowering the forecast to 325,000 metric tons. This updated metric represents an sharp 22 percent decline compared to previous federal estimates, signaling a structural cooling in what has historically been the world’s most dominant dairy import market. The sharp adjustment reflects deep shift in the country’s domestic supply-demand equilibrium and changing purchasing behaviors.
A primary driver behind this import contraction is a persistent drop in domestic consumption across major food categories. Microeconomic data points to a cooling economy and an accelerating demographic shift, highlighted by a declining national birth rate that has directly compromised demand for specialized commodities and infant nutrition formulas. As consumer spending patterns adapt to these macroeconomic headwinds, the industrial manufacturing sector has correspondingly reduced its reliance on foreign ingredient stocks.
Jun 9, 2026
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