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How Low Can Corn Go?

Market Commentary for 6/30/23

The USDA report suggested farmers last spring paid attention to lower fertilizer costs and higher December corn values by planting more corn. Historically, when crops are planted quickly more corn acres are added at the expense of beans.

Harvested vs Planted Acres

Digging deeper into Friday’s report, the USDA’s harvested acres as a percent of planted seems to mirror the average from 2013 through 2017 instead of the last five years. If the average of the last 10 years was used instead, there would be a 500,000-acre reduction for total production. If the average from the last five years was used, it would reduce harvested acres by 1 million. This could mean a potential carryout reduction of 90-180 million bushels or 5-10% decrease sometime in the future.


July 3, 2023



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