New model reveals H5N1 is spreading undetected in US dairy herds
- amy55735
- May 19
- 1 min read
In a recent study in the journal Nature Communications, researchers developed and tested a novel stochastic metapopulation transmission model to predict the scale, the most important epidemiological data, and the states at highest risk in the ongoing H5N1 avian influenza epidemic in US dairy cattle. The model simulates H5N1 transmission between 35,974 herds in the US, with cattle movement informed by probabilistic outputs from the US Animal Movement Model (USAMM) and verified using Interstate Certificates of Veterinary Inspection data.
Model findings predict that the West Coast states have the highest disease burden, with Arizona and Wisconsin at the highest risk of future outbreaks. The study highlights gaps in current biosecurity surveillance systems and suggests that dairy outbreaks are in the 2025 forecast, necessitating urgent interventions addressing these gaps.
By Hugo Francisco de Souza
Reviewed by Susha Cheriyedath, M.Sc.
May 11, 2025
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