While row crop estimates get the most attention, USDA’s August “Crop Production” report also provides an initial estimate of U.S. hay production and includes projections for individual states. Hay production and stocks have major implications for winter feed supply and winter feed costs for cattle operations. Widespread drought in 2022 led to low hay production levels and left very limited hay supplies coming into 2023. This can be seen in USDA’s May 1 hay stocks figure below. Note that hay stocks in the U.S. on May 1 of last year were at their lowest levels since 2013. A sharp increase can also be seen in 2024 as the larger 2023 crop helped to replenish hay supplies.
Last week’s report suggested increases in production were likely at the national level for both “Alfalfa and Alfalfa Mixes,” as well as “All Other Hay” in 2024. These are the only two categories of hay for which estimates are made by USDA-NASS. In this article, I will focus on the All Other Hay (non-alfalfa) category as that is typically more reflective of hay that is fed to beef cows over the winter. At the national level, non-alfalfa hay production was estimated to be up by 8.1% from 2023, largely due to higher expected yields across the country. While this is encouraging for hay supply in aggregate, hay markets are very localized since transportation costs tend to be very high. This is especially true for large roll bales, which are most often fed by cow-calf operators.
By Kenny Burdine, University of Kentucky
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