We’ve Reached the Lowest Replacement Herd Since 1978
- ZISK
- Feb 13
- 1 min read
It’s starting to become a familiar story. Heifer inventories remain exceedingly tight, and the lack of replacements is likely to constrain milk production growth over the coming year. This year, highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) also continues to threaten milk production at a time when many producers would like to expand, according to Monica Ganley, analyst with the Daily Dairy Report and principal in Quarterra, an agricultural consulting firm in Buenos Aries.
As of February 4, 957 dairy herds in 16 states had been affected by HPAI, according to the Centers for Disease Control, but the numbers are likely much higher. More than two-thirds of the dairy herds in California have been affected by the virus. In November, California posted an unprecedented 7.9-percent year-over-year drop in Milk production followed by a 6.8-percent decline in December. While the production loss for an individual herd is relatively short-lived, many key dairy states have yet to see any cases, and if the virus continues to spread so too will losses in milk production.
“Dairy producer margins are strong, and under normal circumstances, high enough to encourage producers to grow milk production by expanding their herds, but the heifers just aren’t available,” Ganley said. Part of the reason for the lack of replacement heifers is that the beef herd is also rebuilding.
By Fran Howard
February 10, 2025
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