What 2027 may have in store

While U.S. milk production growth is still running strong, supply is slowing down across the other major exporters. We now have September milk production for most of the major exporters, and the data continues to show a slowdown in milk production but Europe and New Zealand are slowing down faster than the U.S.

The September U.S. milk production data was a lot stronger than the forecast. Headline U.S. milk production was up 2.6% from last year, but with the fat and protein content of the milk also up, component-adjusted production was up 3.5%. While that is a slowdown from the 5.7% growth we saw in Q4, it is only slightly weaker than the 3.9% growth we saw in Q1. U.S. dairy farmers have added an incredible 421,000 cows (a 4.5% gain) cows to the dairy herd over the past two years, and with all of those additional cows around, it is going to be difficult to dramatically slow U.S. milk production in the short term.

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November 5, 2026

Nate Donnay

hoards.com