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All Milk Price Estimate for 2023 Lowered to $21.60

USDA Issues WASDE Report for January

Milk production for 2022 is lowered from last month with lower expected milk per cow in the January World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates issued on January 9, 2023 by USDA. The 2023 production forecast is lowered with a smaller expected average cow inventory for the year; output per cow is unchanged from last month. USDA’s Cattle report, which will be released January 31, will provide an indication of producer intentions for retaining dairy heifers for addition to the breeding herd.

Driven by recent trade data, fat basis imports for 2022 are unchanged with offsetting changes for a number of products, but skim-solids basis imports are raised on expected demand for milk proteins. Strength in milk protein demand is expected to carry into 2023 and the forecast for skim-solids imports is also raised. Fat basis imports for 2023 are unchanged. Exports on a fat basis for 2022 are raised, largely on butter and cheese with stronger expected butter exports supporting an increased forecast for 2023. Exports on a skim-solids basis are raised in 2022 on stronger cheese and lactose shipments. The 2023 forecast is raised on stronger skim milk powder exports.

For 2022, product and Class price estimates are adjusted to reflect reported prices. For 2023, the price forecasts for all components are lower with expectations of weak domestic demand and price pressure in international markets. Forecasts for Class III and Class IV prices are lowered. The 2022 all milk price forecast is lowered to $25.55 per cwt and the 2023 all milk price is lowered to $21.60 per cwt.

January 16, 2023


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