Cattle markets: Same story, next chapter

The Cattle report released by USDA in late January does nothing to change the strong fundamentals driving cattle markets. Nearly all inventory categories were down year over year, including the total of all cattle and calves, down 0.4 percent compared to last year. The 2025 calf crop was smaller than earlier projections at 32.9 million head, the smallest since 1941.

Of most significance, and slightly surprising, the beef cow herd decreased another 1.0 percent year over year as of January 1, 2026. The beef cow inventory now stands at 27.61 million head, the smallest since 1961. Since the cyclical peak in 2019, at 31.64 million, the beef cow herd has decreased by 4.03 million, a total seven-year drop of 12.7 percent. The 2026 low extends the current cattle cycle to 12 years since the previous low in 2014. Although this is likely to be the cyclical low, it will not be confirmed until next year. The July cattle report may provide additional guidance.

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Derrell Peel

beefmagazine.com

February 4, 2026