Cattle prices: How high is high?
- ZISK
- Apr 10
- 1 min read
I put off writing this piece for one day so I could see the result of the peace proposal between the U.S. and Iran. It appears that a 2-week cease fire has been agreed to and the Strait of Hormuz has been opened up for shipping. The early reaction has been a sharp rally in U.S. stock prices and a sharp decline in crude oil prices. If the war is indeed coming to a close and crude oil prices are headed lower, it vastly decreases the odds of a U.S. or global recession.
At this phase of the cattle cycle, U.S. recession is the number-one threat to ending the bull market. The other threat, that of increasing the herd size and thus increasing beef production, appears to be several years off. The annual cattle inventory report issued in February showed no signs of aggressive heifer retention. The absence of herd expansion without recession indicates that we will experience higher cattle prices for a longer period.
Dennis Smith
April 8, 2026
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