Demographics drive an export evolution
- ZISK
- Apr 29
- 1 min read
The top five destinations for U.S. dairy exports by value are Mexico, Canada, China, Japan, and South Korea. They have more in common beyond being key U.S. dairy importers: Their populations are aging, and population growth is slowing or declining. That’s not necessarily bad on its own. But it does mean a mindset shift for the industry might be in order.
My colleagues at Terrain and I have been examining the risks and opportunities of peak global population coming in the next decades and what that means for U.S. agriculture in a series of reports called The Big Shrink. While we’re still about 40 years away from the peak, the path to peak population entails trends that are already impacting our markets.
U.S. dairy exports have been a major asset to the industry in terms of clearing markets of surplus milk, as well as enabling continued growth in U.S. milk production. In 2024, more than 16% of the milk solids produced in the U.S. were exported, and those export sales brought in $8.2 billion.
By Ben Laine
April 28, 2025
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