Milk production surges
- ZISK
- Mar 30
- 1 min read
U.S. milk production continues to outperform early 2026 projections, and the implications for dairy markets are becoming harder to ignore. According to USDA’s latest Milk Production report, February output reached nearly 18.26 billion pounds, up 2.9% from a year ago. Combined with a revision to January’s estimate, which now shows a 3.4% year-over-year rise, the data confirms that milk supply is expanding at an aggressive pace.
The primary driver for such a jump is the number of cows. Even as milk prices and margins softened in the opening months of the year, producers showed little hesitation in adding cows. USDA estimates the national herd reached 9.6 million head in January, followed by an additional 15,000 head in February. At 9.615 million cows, the U.S. dairy herd is now the largest it has been since the 1990s, sitting at 211,000 head above February 2025 levels.
Productivity gains are also contributing. Milk yields rose 0.6% year-over-year in February, continuing with the trend of making small efficiency improvements. While they aren’t massive changes, these gains add up when layered on top of a rapidly expanding herd.
Jenna Byrne
March 30, 2026
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