Recency bias and things that never happen
- ZISK APP
- Jul 17
- 1 min read
Several previous columns (here and here) referenced some comments made by RCALF Region X Director Eric Gropper in a recent Business Insider video: “We need to fix the market to put some producer confidence back in the game.” That is, the business is at fault for the decline in beef cow numbers over the past several decades.
As explained in those columns, Mr. Gropper’s depiction of the beef industry misses the mark. Moreover, the declaration is woefully out of sync with what’s occurred during the past five years. Cattle prices have been nothing short of phenomenal. In fact, based on the data provided below, producers may have the opposite problem; recency bias is leading to too much confidence, and thus they’re overlooking the importance of risk management.
Nevil Speer
July 16, 2026
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