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Sluggish Milk Supply Growth and Improving Dairy Prices Expected in 2024

WASHINGTON — According to a new report from Rabobank, limited milk supply growth and lackluster demand led to soft dairy commodity pricing in 2023. However, the global dairy market appears to be transitioning to the next phase in its cycle, with prices expected to move higher through 2024. Still, the market remains finely balanced, and uncertainty remains surrounding underlying demand for 2024.

As 2023 draws to a close, the global dairy market continues to walk a tightrope of limited “new” milk and sluggish demand. The year saw soft global dairy commodity pricing due to weaker underlying fundamentals. Global milk supply growth was underwhelming, with three consecutive quarters of growth. Then lower milk prices, elevated costs, and weather disruption put the brakes back on.

Rabobank’s milk supply outlook for 2024 has weakened, with sluggish growth expected across most export regions. “The milk supply export engine never fully fired on all cylinders in 2023 and declined year-on-year in the third quarter by 0.2%,” says Michael Harvey, Senior Analyst – Dairy at Rabobank. “Year-over-year milk production from the Big 7 exporting regions is forecast to decrease through Q1 2024 before turning positive. Overall, milk supply is forecast to grow by a modest 0.3% for the entire year.”

December 11, 2023



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